Apple’s Upgrade Program: I Ran the Math and You’re Losing Money

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Apple just launched a new way to lease an iPhone, an iPad, or even a Mac, and on paper it looks cheap. $18 a month for an iPhone. $38.99 a month for a MacBook Pro. I read the actual numbers, and here is my position: leasing is quietly the most expensive way to own Apple gear. The monthly payments are never designed to pay the device off, and if you hand it back you walk away with nothing. There is one specific situation where it still makes sense, but for most people it is not it. Here is the math, and the option I would use instead.

What the lease actually is

iPhone and Apple Watch leases run for 12 or 24 months. Mac and iPad run for 24 or 36 months. There is no security deposit. It is backed by Klarna, which runs a soft credit check when you sign up, so check Klarna’s terms for things like late fees.

All of that sounds simple. The part that matters is buried underneath it: your monthly payments are never designed to actually pay off the device. Not even if you pay every single month for the full term. At the end you either pay the gap to keep it, or you give the device back and get nothing.

The catch: the payments never pay it off

Run it on the phone first. The iPhone 17e is $600 to just go buy. Lease it for 24 months at $18 a month and you have paid about $431.76 by the end. That is $167 short of the purchase price. So you either pay that gap to keep it, or you hand Apple the phone back and walk away with nothing.

The bigger the device, the bigger the gap. A MacBook Pro leased for 36 months puts about $1,403.64 toward a $2,000 machine, which leaves a $595.36 buyout if you want to keep it. Do the shorter 24 month term at $54 a month and you have paid $1,295.76, with $703.24 still owed. The iPad Pro follows the same pattern: over 36 months you pay about $899.64 and still owe a buyout to keep it. Every path ends the same way. You have paid a pile of money and you still do not own the thing.

DevicePaid if you lease and returnYou own at the endBuyout to keep it
iPhone 17e ($600)$431.76NothingAbout $167 more
MacBook Pro, 36 mo ($2,000)$1,403.64Nothing$595.36
MacBook Pro, 24 mo ($2,000)$1,295.76Nothing$703.24
iPad Pro, 36 mo$899.64NothingAbout $300 more

Trade-ins and the fine print at the end

You can trade an existing device in when you lease, but the end of the term gets interesting. If you do nothing when the term ends, the lease rolls into month to month payments for up to six months, and those payments can go up. After that, the purchase fee is charged and the device is yours. You can also buy it out or return it at the end. Klarna can also charge fees if you return the device and it is not in good condition.

You can end the lease early, but you still owe whatever is left on your remaining payments. The one clean exit is the 14 day window: return the device within 14 days of getting it and the lease is canceled with nothing owed.

Why buying and reselling still wins

Here is the thing that settles it for most people. Apple gear holds resale value better than almost anything else you can buy, so if you lease and hand it back, you are throwing that value away.

Buy the iPhone 17e outright, use it for two years, and sell it. An iPhone typically keeps about 40% of its value, so you get roughly $240 back. That makes the real cost of owning it for two years about $359. Lease it and return it and you paid $431.76 with nothing to sell. On the phone the lease only loses you about $80, and you skip the hassle of selling it yourself, so it is not a disaster.

The Mac is where it gets dramatic. Apple Silicon MacBooks hold about 40 to 50% of their value over three years, so a $2,000 machine still sells for around $900 later. Buy and resell and it costs you about $1,100 to own. Lease and return and you spent $1,403.64 with nothing to sell. That is about $300 more for the exact same computer. From a strictly financial view, leasing loses to buying and reselling.

The one number Apple got backwards: the buyout

This is the most interesting part of the whole program. A car lease usually sets the end of term buyout high so the monthly payment looks small, and the company banks on you walking away without ever buying it. Apple built this one backwards.

The buyout on that MacBook Pro is about $595.36, which is cheaper than what a three year old M series Mac typically sells for used. The same pattern shows up on the iPhone and iPad. So if you lease and then buy it out at the end, you can walk away owning a machine that is worth more than you just spent to get it. The buyout, not the lease, is the actual deal here.

Why Apple is happy to offer this

So why would Apple offer a deal that favors the customer on paper? Because when an upgrade is available, almost no one keeps the old device. Most people return it out of habit, or roll straight into a new lease for the next model.

Apple gets a working Mac or iPhone back, refurbishes it, and sells it again at a decent price. Whatever equity you left on the table becomes Apple’s margin. The math can favor you, but the business model is betting you will not bother running it, and that you will either buy new or just keep the cycle going. I also think it is launching now because rising component costs have pushed Apple’s prices up, and a low monthly number is an easier sell than a bigger sticker.

What I would actually do instead

My favorite move is still to wait a couple of months after a device comes out and grab it on sale from Amazon, B&H, or Best Buy. The deals there are real.

If you do not have the cash up front and do not want to wait, use Apple Card monthly installments. It is 0% interest, split over 12 months for a Mac or iPad and up to 24 months for an iPhone. You own the device the whole time. There is no return, no buyout, and no gap. The total cost is exactly the sticker price, just spread out, and you track it in Apple Wallet. You still get the 3% cash back. It is functionally the same as buying outright, with the same resale value later and the same net cost. The only requirement is having an Apple Card.

Bottom line

If you keep your gear for three to five years and sell before the next upgrade, buy it outright or use the 0% financing. That is still the best option. Apple Upgrade only makes sense in one case: you genuinely want a new device every year or two and you cannot be bothered selling the old one yourself. That is the only time the hassle you are paying for is worth it.

If you do lease anything, mark the buyout date on your calendar. Do not let it roll into a month to month extension, and do not reflexively hand the device back. Check what a used one is actually selling for first, because the buyout price might be the single best deal in the entire program.

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